AFL Round 1 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 1 of the AFL home and away season

Richmond are massive underdogs for the opening match of Round 1 and come off a 2024 season that saw them claim the wooden spoon with just two wins. They have offloaded a number of players since then via trades, retirements and delistings to load up via the draft. They will be a few seasons away from being competitive and will struggle. Carlton head in with some injury concerns around key players but will be too good. They were impressive 58-point winners over GWS in the recent Community Series and a similar margin is on the cards here. 

Hawthorn are one of four sides to have already played in 2025, registering a 20-point win over the Sydney Swans at the SCG in the Opening Round. There is pleny of hype around the Hawks but they will have to improve on a poor recent record against Essendon that has seen them go down the last four times the two sides have met. Despite this record, as well as Essendon’s encouraging 21-point win over Geelong in the recent Community Series, the Hawks should have the class to account for the Bombers in Friday nignt footy. 

Both sides appear for the first time this season. Geelong’s opening fixture against Brisbane was postponed due to Cyclone Alfred and they appear in front of their home fans. Chris Scott’s side finished 3rd in 2024 and have picked up Bailey Smith in the trade period. The former Bulldog looked sharp in the Cats pre-season. Fremantle will be keen to atone for a late season fadeout last year that saw them miss the eight. They have a solid recent record over Geelong but I am expecting the home side to get the job done here. 

The rematch of the 2024 Grand Final shapes as a crucial early season encounter, particularly for Sydney, who opened up their season with a 20-point loss to Hawthorn in Round 1. Brisbane had the superior second half of the 2024 season form, which culminated with their 60 point win in the decider. This will be much closer on the Swans home deck at the SCG but the Lions can hit the ground running and should have too much depth in the midfield with a Swans side that will be missing Errol Gulden.

Tricky game for the Western Bulldogs, who have been hit hard with injury in the pre-season with their skipper, Marcus Bontempelli, the latest casualty. The Dogs were able to navigate the Community Series match against Hawthorn and that form reads well for this. Expect North Melbourne to improve on their win-loss record of 3-20 from 2024 but it is a bit of a stretch to say they can roll the Bulldogs on Saturday.

Danger game for Collingwood and the heat is on the 2023 premiers after their poor showing in the Opening Round that saw them go down to an injury depleted Giants outfit by 52 points. The Magpies enjoy the home ground advantage and have handed the Power some lessons at the venue in recent years. Port will be without their best player in Zac Butters and that will reduce their ability to slice through the middle of the ground. This shapes as a real close one and it is the Power that might have the legs to edge past Collingwood late in the game. 

Sunday, 16 March

This shapes as a golden opportunity for Adelaide to kick off their season with a win. St Kilda are one of a few sides that have been hit hard by injury in the off-season and battled in their recent hitout against Port Adelaide in the Community Series with a 44 point loss. Adelaide edged past Brisbane in a three-point thriller with Jordan Dawson leading the way. The Crows had the inferior win-loss record in 2024 but have won their past two against St Kilda at the Adelaide Oval in comfortable fashion. 

Little separates the two sides in the head to head betting. Melbourne were favoured to push towards a premiership last year but had a shocker. Clayton Oliver was down on form, while Christian Petracca sustained a series injury in the mid-season, ending his campaign early. Those two look back to their best but question marks remain on the Demons potency up front. Given what GWS did to Collingwood last weekend without a number of key players, there is no reason why the orange tsunami cant prevail again this weekend. 

West Coast enter a new era under coach Andrew McQualter, who takes over from Adam Simpson. The Eagles head in as underdogs but have recruited reasonably well, while the likes of Harley Reid have had another pre-season to develop. Gold Coast head in as favourites but will need to overcome a horrendous recent record outside of Queensland and the Northern Territory.